Monthly Archives: January 2012

Can the Cardinals Deal McClellan?

30 Monday Jan 2012

Posted by in 2012, General

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , ,

Kyle McClellan deals during the 2011 season at Busch Stadium.

As we continue following the developing Roy Oswalt story – for up-to-the-minute updates as events unfold check El Maquino’s breakdown – it appears that the Cardinals are in the middle of an attempt to dump salary to make both payroll and roster space for a Free Agent Starting Pitcher most likely by the name of Roy Oswalt.  Despite reports, there is little to no chance any such opening would be used to tender a contract to the less enthusiastic option Edwin Jackson who was once expected to net at least a few years on his forthcoming deal.

The Cardinals are currently reported to be in trade discussions with at least one team and likely a couple more.  The Baltimore Orioles present themselves as the most likely destination for a Kyle McClellan trade at the moment and reports have swirled that the Cardinals asked of a mid-level prospect in return.  This suggestion was rejected however as too high a price to pay for the services of Kyle McClellan right now (and I would agree).  The Cardinals will, if they haven’t already, adjust their offer to accept little more than salary relief.  McClellan is due $2.5MM in 2012 after coming to an agreement with the Cardinals a couple of weeks ago.

The only major hang-up right now in the club’s possibility to move McClellan to the Orioles is their desire to bring back their 2011 trade chip Koji Uehara – a player they traded to the Rangers on July 30th for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter.  Texas is the only other viable (known) suitor for the services of Roy Oswalt this season so they have the opportunity to create a gap in there roster and play spoiler to their 2011 World Series foes in St. Louis.

Roy Oswalt is expected to visit the Texas Rangers tomorrow (Monday) and will likely make a decision within the next seven days.  As always, this is a developing story and I’ll continue to look at our possibilities as the situation evolves.

All Signs Point to Oswalt

28 Saturday Jan 2012

Posted by in 2012, General, Sabermetrics

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2nd Edit – 29 January – 11:30 AM:  John Mozeliak apparently not smokescreening about whether the club had signed or had a contract in place with Oswalt.  Reports come out that Roy Oswalt will be visiting the Texas Rangers on Monday and a decision may come soon.  Perhaps on Tuesday, maybe Roy is just a really big fan of National Signing Day?
____________________________________________________________________

This blog was posted last night but I obviously needed to make a quick update as there’s been a few news items to note re: the Oswalt-to-Cardinals story.  All signs, except apparently John Mozeliak, point to Oswalt.  In an article today, John Mozeliak denies any pursuit of Roy Oswalt by the club.
____________________________________________________________________

Official word pending, it appears that the St. Louis Cardinals have agreed to terms with Free Agent SP Roy Oswalt.  Oswalt, former teammate to Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran, seems to be headed to Busch Stadium on a one year deal slated to pay in the range of about $5MM.  This will inevitably push one of Jake Westbrook or Kyle Lohse out of the picture, the only hang-up?  Both men possess a valuable No Trade Clause in their contracts.  If neither man is willing to waive their NTC it will create a predicament within the rotation that may result in Jake Westbrook either being relegated to a bullpen role or, and more likely, outright released.  The Cardinals have certainly weighed the possibility of having to eat some dollars on either of the two men’s contracts in a trade or a release in the event they were able to bring aboard Oswalt.  Lohse is due $11.9MM while Westbrook is due $8.5 so the Cardinals are looking at a BIG chunk of money either way.  A trade is the best-case scenario right now.

Roy Oswalt was no slouch last season despite his well-documented injuries.  He maintained a very respectable HR/9 (0.65) despite pitching several games in Philadelphia and sports an above average GB% (47.3%) for his career which should play into the Cardinals continued pitch-to-contact philosophy despite a lack of Dave Duncan for the foreseeable future.

Oswalt’s injury is still something to consider as I mentioned a couple weeks back that there was talk of Oswalt hanging it up due to his back mid-season last year.  This seems to be a reasonable risk to the Cardinals and I’m on board, as well.  Oswalt managed an FIP of 3.44 with an xFIP of 3.95 so he did very well in his injury-shortened 2011 campaign of 139 innings.

In another previous entry I discussed the potential for Lance Lynn to claim the 5th roster spot in Spring Training, this is no longer something I see as a possibility and expect him to stand a greater chance starting the year in Memphis’ rotation rather than St. Louis’ bullpen.  I love what Lance Lynn may be able to provide as a starter and believe he projects as a #3 or #4 in the Major Leagues.  While I want to see him at the big league level, I hope the organization remains committed to Lynn as a starter more than a reliever.

Cardinals Caravan – Springfield, MO

17 Tuesday Jan 2012

Posted by in 2012, Photographs

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I made it out to the Cardinals Caravan in Springfield on Friday and took some photos and jotted down a few of the responses from the Q&A session.  There’s not a ton to write about as it was a very brief Q&A session totalling not more than 10 questions between all six of the Cardinals.

Here in Springfield, we were lucky enough to be the only stop on the Caravan for new skipper Mike Matheny and unsurprisingly he was the big focus of the Q&A.  I was interested in a few things that he said as he answered questions rather candidly for a manager.  That is, rather candidly for a Cardinals manager.  We’re used to Tony La Russa who often set the bar for providing as little information as possible with his answers.  Matheny was asked how Allen Craig was looking and revealed that Craig was “behind schedule in his rehab” and doesn’t expect him to be ready for Opening Day, though he admitted Craig feels differently.

Another question posed to our new manager was the potential for Pitching Coach Dave Duncan to return to the team this season.  Matheny answered with the preface that he would be doing exactly what Duncan is doing were his family suffering a similar situation.  He said that the door will remain open the entire season if things turn around and Duncan wants to return but there is no timetable and no expectations.

With the majority of the questions asked from that point being more generic in nature, the rest of the guests started to field some answers for the crowd.  Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs were asked to give their thoughts on winning a World Championship, to which both replied that it was the greatest feeling they’ve had in their sports careers.

Jason Motte was later asked about some reports of complaints last season about his playing time – reports I honestly don’t remember hearing and can’t find any record of through a google search – to which he replied “Well, I pitched in 78 games last season…  I think I’m okay with my playing time.”

Jason Motte then fielded a follow up about whether or not he is now the official closer of the 2012 team which he sidestepped rather gracefully with a smile on his face as he glanced over at his new manager looking on while emcee Mike Claiborne took the reigns saying “Call him what you want, all I know is I was happy to see him on the mound for the last out of the season.”

All in all, though short, the Q&A session was about 11% informative and 89% laughter and fun.  I’ve touched on merely the highlights here with Matheny, Motte, and Boggs but we also heard from OF Shane Robinson and former SPs Jason Simontacchi and Danny Cox.  Everyone had a short say on how to treat young boys who are involved in the game of baseball; everything from when to start them on throwing curveballs to what position is best to start out at.  The main point expressed by everyone and emphasized by Danny Cox was to simply get your kids out of the house; “You can’t effectively practice throwing a baseball in doors.  Get outside and play the game.”

After the quick Q&A session, the guests moved onto autographs and signed as much as they could for the rather large Friday afternoon gathering.  They couldn’t stay as long as I’m sure they and the folks in line would have wanted, though, as they had more stops and visits to make before the Tournament of Champions event later on that evening.

Here are some of the additional photos from the afternoon.

As an addition to the days events – Springfield Cardinals General Manager Matt Gifford announced that the World Series trophy would be at Hammons Field on the April 20-22 homestand when the Baby Birds host the Tulsa Drillers.  Game Time is 7:08 on Friday the 20th and 2:08 on Saturday and Sunday.  Be sure to make it out and support the hometown club.

Replacing Albert Pujols

15 Sunday Jan 2012

Posted by in 2012, General, Sabermetrics

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Adam Wainwright delivers home at Busch Stadium in 2010, a season in which he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting.

Yes, as we’re all well aware by now, Albert is gone. My personal feelings towards the situation are that it’s a sad state of affairs that all of us, Albert included, will miss out on such a great story and a legendary career with the Cardinals. That’s as far as my emotional response extends on the situation, though. My practical side says we just dodged a very big $220 million dollar bullet and I give all the credit in the world to John Mozeliak for not caving to the pressure of losing out on this era’s greatest hitter and putting the team in a very difficult position for the next decade.

Not only did John Mozeliak handle the contract situation with Albert intelligently and rationally, he handled the damage-control just as well. That’s what today’s post is dealing with; how the St. Louis Cardinals of 2012 replace the contribution of Albert Pujols – and how they might fare even better during this regular season than they did in 2011.

Albert Pujols contributed a 5.1 WAR season to the Cardinals efforts last year. That’s pretty good, obviously, but it won’t come as a shock to most of the readers here that it was the lowest WAR season he’s had in the Major Leagues and by a good chunk – nine-tenths of a win.

Just to clarify for any readers unfamiliar, WAR is based upon statistics that count the contribution of Runs by a player.  10 runs accounts for 1 win.  So, Albert Pujols was worth roughly 51 Runs above the average replacement-level ballplayer in 2011.  Now, there is more to it than just scoring runs, of course.  The stats utilized are wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average) which have to do with offensive output, UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) which is the defensive representation, along with an adjustment for the player’s position – because certain positions tend to carry less offensive potential than others (SS or 2B versus 1B or a corner OF position), and an adjustment for the value of a replacement level player to set a benchmark for the average.

Now, I feel like a true assessment on WAR as a definitive measure of on-field value is still up for debate but most seem to agree that its best value is in determining a players production value in terms of dollars and cents (well, really just dollars…  and millions of them).  For our purposes here, however, I’m using it with the idea that it’s pretty good at telling us how much value we can expect from a player on the field.

The first thing I look at in this whole idea of replacing what Albert Pujols provided on the field is in who we are getting back for 2012.  We were without a Cy Young caliber pitcher in 2011, a pitcher with a 6.1 WAR in 2010.  Adam Wainwright before his Tommy John surgery is not much less valuable than a 31-year old Albert Pujols.  And the adjustment for age has Albert losing around 1 to 2 WAR per season while Wainwright (though his surgery being an intangible at the moment, but one we can be fairly confident he successfully returns from as seems to be the norm these days) should continue to increase his WAR value now in the middle of his prime years.  Bill James projects Wainwright for 30 starts next season with an FIP 3.24.

Wainwright is certainly the most important addition to the 2012 team but it’s not the sole addition thanks to smart work by the front office.  The addition of Furcal for a full season, assuming health, is a very positive addition.  With the Cardinals suffering a substandard defense up the middle most of the season, Furcal will at least mitigate the defensive miscues that the pitching staff had to deal with and save runs with his glove.

Without question the biggest off-season story for the club outside of losing Albert is the addition of Carlos Beltran.  Beltran posted a .389 wOBA last season and was worth 4.7 WAR which are both great for a player at his age and a player coming off knee surgery.  (For those curious about Beltran’s actual health issues, I refer you to bgh’s look on VEB at what really happened and where the confusion came in on the procedure Beltran really chose to undergo.)  Though a .389 wOBA is not a reasonable expectation of what Beltran may do for us next season – his career average is .372 and he hasn’t posted a wOBA as high as last year for a single season when playing over 100 games since 2006 – I think it’s fair to suspect he’ll not be too terrible below that mark.  Beltran will fit nicely into a pretty potent lineup surrounded by Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Allen Craig.

The projections for Beltran seem to agree that he won’t fall very far short of his production from last season.  Here are a couple outlooks from my two favorite resources, Bill James and ZiPS, we’ll look at Bill James’ first and ZiPS’ second as they each present a different selection of data.

James:

G PA HR AVG OBP SLG wOBA
128 548 20 .279 .369 .525 .367

ZiPS:

G AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS+
107 397 14 .282 .363 .474 126

Perhaps expectedly, the projected OPS+ of 126 would be good for 3rd best on the 2012 Cardinals based on ZiPS outlook for the Redbirds. That would be behind the even-132 OPS+ of both Berkman and Holliday.

The 2012 Cardinals have such a great potential, so much better than last season, to score more runs than they allow. The return of Adam Wainwright to the rotation is simply invaluable and improved defense in the infield and presumably an improved defense in the outfield with the luxury of utilizing Berkman’s bat at the safe position of 1B give the team a great chance to slow down opposing offenses.  As for our own offense, it will always hurt to lose a player the caliber of Albert Pujols (even a player who is 75% the caliber or Albert Pujols), but we have added a very adequate bat with Carlos Beltran who would firstly bridge the gap between Opening Day and the return of Allen Craig smoothly and secondly provide a stronger OF offense when Craig returns and pushes Jay to the 4th OF slot where he can spell Beltran, Craig, and Holliday as needed.

Given the additions, I feel more than confident that our 2012 incarnation will prove stronger than the 2011 and credit the front office for a great recovery after losing one of the greatest players of our generation.

Book Review: John Heidenry’s The Gashouse Gang

10 Tuesday Jan 2012

Posted by in Book Reviews, History

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

by John Heidenry

I picked up John Heidenry’s The Gashouse Gang around a year ago or so. It was about this time of the year; when the days are a little bit colder — or not, as we’re experiencing in my neck of the woods thus far, the days a little bit shorter, and the baseball banter just a little less enthusiastic. That’s when my desire for anything and everything baseball-related kicks into scavenger mode. I do the worst damage to my bank account this time of year as it pertains to books (the Summer damage, of course, is reserved for beer and brats at the ballpark), and the closer to that day when we can almost say it’s almost baseball season the more I feel the need to dive into whatever baseball and Cardinals-related stories I can find.

The Gashouse Gang fills several necessary voids for one who is both a Cardinals-obsessor and a History major. I cannot get enough when it comes to stories of the players of baseball’s past who preceded constant television and news coverage (and certainly the ever constant watchful eye of our very own blogosphere). I have a particular passion for my beloved Deadball Era pitchers, among my most favorite of personalities and pitchers being the great Lefty Grove. Grove pitched brilliant baseball for the Philadelphia Athletics under Connie Mack over nearly a decade and, yes, with a solemn tone I note that he won two games against our beloved Redbirds in the 1930 World Series. However, take comfort knowing the Cardinals returned to face those same Philly A’s the following season and bested them in seven games.

That 1931 World Series would lead the Cardinals into the Gashouse Gang era with a Championship, and it was a World Series rife with some all-time talent.  The Philadelphia Athletics entered the Fall Classic with some famous Hall of Famers on their roster: the great Jimmie Foxx, Lefty Grove, Al Simmons, two-time MVP Mickey Cochrane, and he of the 21-year career who was with Philadelphia only for this one Championship season Waite Hoyt.  The St. Louis Cardinals ’31 team trotted out their own set of future Hall of Famers in Jim Bottomley, Frankie Frisch (who would become the manager of the Gashouse Gang team), Chuck Hafey, and Burleigh Grimes who would start and win two games in this series.  The real star of the series would go, however, to none of these aforementioned HOFers but rather Pepper Martin (also a member of the ’34 Gashouse Gang) who dazzled in 24 PAs with a line of .500/.538/.792, posting an OPS over .500 points higher than his season total.

As the team evolved over the next two years, it brought together the grand cast of characters that would make The Gashouse Gang the band of rowdy ballplayers that they have come to be known as today.  It’s worth noting, and John Heidenry will ensure you’re aware, that The Gashouse Gang moniker is specific to the 1934 club.  We are fortunate to have such an entertaining cast to read about — granted it may well be infuriating if I were to put myself in the shoes of a fan dealing with such personalities today — we enjoy the luxury of film reels and great collections of stories such as this.

In one particular story, Pepper was in a extra-ordinary slump.  Common superstition of the time promoted the idea that if a hitter were to find a woman’s bobby pin for her hair, he would be guaranteed a hit.  As such, Dizzy and Paul Dean decided they would leave an entire pile of bobby pins right outside the hotel door just waiting for Pepper to happen upon them.  Instead, team heel and future Hall of Famer, though much more for his managerial successes than his minimal playing success, Leo “The Lip” Durocher walks out the door to the mound of bobby pins.  Dizzy yells down to him, “Hey, those are for Pepper!.”  To which The Lip replies, “To hell with Pepper, he can find his own hits!” as he shoves the bobby pins in his pockets by the fistful.

Heidenry does a great job of introducing the reader to the beginning and development of Dizzy Dean in his book.  While he does not in any way downplay Dean’s many absurdities and peculiarities, he gives a background of the man not often mentioned when stories of Dizzy Dean are retold.  As well, Heidenry explains the unique relationship between Dean and his brother Paul, more commonly known as Daffy (a nickname of which he was not pleased).

In all, The Gashouse Gang is an enjoyable read for those looking to gleam some Cardinals history or those simply looking for a few laughs.  The book is full of comedy as one would expect from such a legendary club known for their attitudes and antics.  Anyone with an interest in the Redbirds should read this book and I’d say anyone with an interest in baseball history in general would really enjoy John Heidenry’s offering.

Lance Lynn: The Starter

07 Saturday Jan 2012

Posted by in 2012, General, Sabermetrics

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , ,

Lance Lynn delivers against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium during Game 5 of the NLCS.

After looking into our Fifth Starter slot the other day and taking a good look at Lance Lynn’s peripheral numbers on the season I had to dig a little deeper and look at his potential for success as a starter in the Major Leagues next season.

Lance Lynn pitched 34.2 innings split between the bullpen and the rotation last season, his first in the Majors (10.1 as a Starter, 24.1 in relief).  His 10.1 innings came over two starts on June 2nd and June 6th against the San Francisco Giants and at the Houston Astros respectively.

Opp IP H HR ER K BB
Giants 5.1 4 1 5 5 0
Astros 5.0 6 0 1 3 3

Lynn arguably pitched a better ballgame against the Giants while taking the loss (and surrendering quite a few more runs), but I think we’re seeing the difference between a capable offense taking advantage of his few mistakes versus a severely inept offense incapable of taking advantage of several mistakes. Even still, his numbers as a starting pitcher last season aren’t very reliable for one big reason: the small sample size. 10.1 innings is simply not enough to evaluate his abilities in that role. Another consideration for Lance is the fact that these were his first Major League games in which he had ever pitched and at the age of 24. For what it’s worth Lynn posted a 113 ERA+ with a 10.4 K/9 between the rotation and the bullpen and only grew more confident as the season progressed, though hampered in early August with an oblique strain that kept him out of the mix until the post-season.

Though his 10.1 Major League innings as a starter is minimal, what we do have are 372 innings of SP innings across AA Springfield and AAA Memphis that we can take a look at and evaluate.

Year Level Age G/GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP
2009 AA 22 22/22 126.1 6.98 3.63 0.36 2.92 3.47
AAA 22 1/1 6.2 12.15 4.05 0.00 2.70 1.87
2010 AAA 23 29/29 164.0 7.74 3.40 1.15 4.77 4.43
2011 AAA 24 12/12 75.0 7.68 3.00 0.24 3.84 2.92

Lynn had a lot of luck during his time at AA Springfield.  With a low K-rate and high BB-rate he managed to post a 2.92 ERA with an 11-4 record despite an FIP almost a full half-run higher.   What’s important about these numbers of Lynn’s tenure in the rotation is constant improvement.  Improvement of his K/9, BB/9 and his ability to post an FIP in 2011 with Memphis of nearly a full run less than his ERA shows.  Lynn’s only drawback to this point is that he’s thrown just one season with more than 25 starts.

I would imagine the team is looking at Lynn as a starter and right now he’s projecting to be quite a bit better than your league average 5th Starter.  Kyle Lohse’s contract is coming to an end, Chris Carpenter’s career is likely in its final couple-few season… Wainwright seems poised to take over the #1 slot as the Ace with Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia making great cases as #2′s while Miller possesses the ability to become a #1.  With the departure of Lohse and Carpenter, we’ll have two voids in the rotation that could quite easily be filled within the next two season by both Lynn and Miller.

Bill James’ 2012 projection for Lynn puts its stock in him as a starter but only as far as 12 starts.  ZiPS sees Lynn splitting time again between the pen and the rotation, but seeing quite a bit more time as a starter in 2012.  Here’s the 2012 outlook for Lynn:

Proj G/GS IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA
James 12/12 79.0 8.88 7.63 3.30 0.68 3.76
ZiPS 29/20 126.3 9.12 6.62 3.84 0.57 4.06

James is far more optimistic of Lynn’s performance next season while ZiPS believes he’ll get more opportunities with the big club. As always, I’m sure the reality will lie somewhere in the middle but I do agree with James’ estimation that Lynn will only spend his time in the rotation if everything goes to plan, whether that be in the St. Louis rotation or the Memphis rotation. Lynn has little left to prove at the AAA level but the importance of keep him in a physical position to pitch in the rotation is important if that’s where management sees him fitting in.

Barring any new additions to the 2012 pitching staff heading into Spring Training I would imagine Lance Lynn will get significant opportunity in Spring Training to audition for the 5th rotation slot (as will Jake Westbrook whom may have the upper hand at the moment though for no real reason other than experience). In my impression, Lance Lynn is the best option for the fifth man and I hope to see him take charge during the Spring and showcase his talents.

Roy Oswalt vs. Jake Westbrook; or The Fifth Pitcher

06 Friday Jan 2012

Posted by in General, Sabermetrics

≈ Leave a Comment

Tags

, , , , , , ,

Nick Cafardo writes that the Cardinals and Roy Oswalt have expressed a mutual interest for the 2012 season.  In turn, Joe Strauss postulates (despite admitting that the front office is hush) that the organization would only be interested in using Oswalt in a relief role given that the rotation for 2012 is “set.”  Never mind the fact that I am less than committed to the belief that the 2012 rotation is set when you’re hearing Kyle Lohse trade rumors and your fifth starter is Jake Westbrook.  Given the indecision, I’d like to take a look at the 2011 rotation and our potential 2012 rotation.

In 2011, we had a rotation that looked like this:

Pitcher 2011 GB% 2011 K/9 2011 BB/9 2011 WAR
Carpenter 41.1% 7.25 2.09 5.0
Garcia 53.6% 7.21 2.31 3.6
Lohse 41.4% 5.30 2.01 2.5
Westbrook 59.3% 5.11 3.58 1.1
5th Starters 49.6% 6.10 3.04 N/A

As for the 5th Starters, this is a category that includes Edwin Jackson, Kyle McClellan, Lance Lynn, Miguel Batista, and Brandon Dickson. Edwin Jackson had the most substantial impact in the rotation, starting 12 games for the Cardinals. I made sure to utilize only the pitchers’ numbers in games where they played the role of Starter so we’re not looking at stats which include Lynn’s and K-Mac’s bullpen time.

(Also, in looking at Lance Lynn, one thing that I must point out is how exceedingly strong his GB% was last season as a starter – but it’s such a small sample size (just ten innings) that I can’t put much stock in it. There will be more coming on Lance Lynn in the next day or two as a follow up to this post. There’s a good case to be made for Lance Lynn and this 5th spot in the rotation.)

Getting back to the meat of this particular topic, let’s take a look at Roy Oswalt.  Literally just six months ago NBC Sports Hardball Talk was talking about Roy Oswalt’s career potentially being over.  It’s entirely possible that he’s not fit for a rotation slot at all, and that’s where the idea that the Cardinals would eye him for a bullpen spot.  However, given the nature of our bullpen in the latter half of 2011 and how well-constructed the crew is based on their cost-effective contribution, it makes little sense to invest this money in Roy Oswalt as a reliever.

Oswalt’s recent health issues aside, what is important to look at is his potential to fit within the Cardinals’ well-established doctrine of first-pitch strikes and groundballs…  by the plenty.  Over his career his GB% has averaged out to 47.3% which isn’t so bad and almost right in line with where the Cardinals have sat over the last 5 seasons.  Under Dave Duncan’s oversight (which as I’m learning at the writing of this article on this Thursday evening will come to an end for the 2012 season) the Cardinals have put together a GB% of 48% since 2006.  Roy Oswalt would fit within that mold for the Cardinals, but the staggering statistic of this inquiry is Jake Westbrook’s impeccable ability to induce the groundball.  Westbrook has, over his career, averaged out to a 59% groundball percentage.  That is, along with Westbrook’s relative health and durability, his primary bright spot.

Let’s take a look at some comparisons of Roy Oswalt and Jake Westbrook for the 2012 season:

Pitcher Proj GS IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Jake Westbrook ZiPS 22 127.3 4.52 5.37 3.39 0.84
James 32 183 4.33 5.16 3.39 0.84
Roy Oswalt ZiPS 25 154 3.68 6.66 2.28 0.82
James 26 171 3.47 7.00 2.26 0.79

As you can see and could easily suspect from the outset, Oswalt projects very well in comparison to Jake Westbrook next season.  James is very optimistic towards Westbrook’s number of stars versus both the ZiPS projection and his own expectation of Oswalt.  One interesting note is how low Oswalt’s actual 2011 HR/9 was in comparison to his career averages despite playing in such a favorable hitter’s park last season and it was in fact his second-lowest HR/9 he’s ever posted.  James HR/9 projection on Oswalt seems the most likely as it’s most in line with his career average and you could expect – were Oswalt to pitch for the Cardinals – Busch Stadium would play a role in suppressing his HR totals at least a bit.

Oswalt is definitely the better pitcher, injury concerns or no, and the fact of the matter is the Cardinals are very well-situated to sustain any possible injury if they were to sign Oswalt to take the fifth spot in the rotation.  Westbrook will still be on the team, Lance Lynn has shown a lot of upside, Shelby Miller continues to improve and posts a nearly above-league average projection via ZiPS for the 2012 season as a 21-year old (94 ERA+, league average being 96).  The Cardinals can afford to take a risk for a potentially big return on a guy like Roy Oswalt right now.

Wainwright is coming off of a surgery from which pitchers recover very well these days so I feel fairly strongly that there’s no lack of confidence in Wainwright’s ability to pitch a full season in 2012.  Chris Carpenter, however,  is a bit of a concern with his age and the number of innings put on his arm last season.  Given that, the possibility of another starter in the mix – if Oswalt is healthy enough to reasonably expect him to perform next year – makes enough sense to me to take the risk.  He projects out well and if he feels good then he’s a good enough pitcher to see what he can do.  If his injury turns out to be more of a factor than the team or Oswalt himself expected, then we have a few solid options to fill the void.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.